The Blacksmith's Dilemma: What Would You Have Done?
Recently, someone showed me these photos from 5th Avenue in New York. The left picture is from 1900, the right is from 1913. In just 13 years, the street scene evolved from walkers and horse carts to a bustling thoroughfare of automobiles.
This picture got me wondering: imagine you were a blacksmith in 1908. Horseshoe demand was declining, but there weren't enough automobiles to make tire manufacturing profitable. What would you have done — with incomplete information and uncertain timing?
It strikes me how obvious the "right" choice seems now. And how genuinely unclear it must have been then.
The uncertainty behind strategic decisions
The blacksmith faced something many of us recognize: sensing change while being unable to predict precisely how it will unfold. Hold on to what's working, while it slowly declines? Pivot early to something unproven? Try both simultaneously?
I wonder what it felt like to be in that uncertainty. Risking your livelihood on incomplete information about timing and market evolution.
What this reveals about today
When I share this story with leaders in professional services, the conversation often shifts naturally to their context. They recognize similar patterns — changes they can sense but can't reasonably predict.
Digital innovation is reshaping client expectations. Sustainability requirements are creating new demands. Traditional service models are shifting. But the timing and ultimate direction remain unclear.
The parallel feels familiar: operating effectively today while building capability for an uncertain tomorrow.
Beyond traditional planning
What's fascinating is how this uncertainty exposes the limits of conventional strategic planning. Traditional approaches assume more certainty than exists. They work well for predictable change but struggle with the complex, interconnected shifts that characterize today's business environment.
The most engaging conversations happen when leaders move beyond "what should we do?" to "what are we experiencing?" Creating deliberate time for exploration rather than rushing to solutions.
The questions that matter
In our work with mid-sized service providers, several questions keep emerging:
How do you make sense of partial information when you can't predict the pace of change? What does it mean to be responsive in genuine uncertainty? And perhaps most intriguingly — what if your capacity to thrive in complexity became a strategic advantage?
I'm curious about what would have happened if that blacksmith had access to a community of other craftspeople navigating similar uncertainty. What might they have discovered together that none could have figured out alone?
An invitation
The blacksmith's story fascinates me because it illuminates something we're all navigating: making strategic decisions amid genuine uncertainty.
What becomes possible when you approach your current situation with the same thoughtful curiosity that blacksmith brought to 1908? What patterns are you discovering in your context? What questions are emerging as you consider your path forward?